Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heracles win with a probability of 48.82%. A win for De Graafschap had a probability of 27.33% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heracles win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.14%) and 0-2 (7.81%). The likeliest De Graafschap win was 2-1 (6.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.15%). The actual scoreline of 5-3 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood.
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