Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Willem II win with a probability of 74.5%. A draw had a probability of 15% and a win for Jong PSV had a probability of 10.45%.
The most likely scoreline for a Willem II win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.06%) and 3-0 (8.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.81%), while for a Jong PSV win it was 1-2 (3.11%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Willem II would win this match.
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