This is a match that could swing either way, and it would certainly not be a surprise to see Stevenage progress to the next round of the competition. Exeter will have home advantage, though, and we believe that will help them navigate their way into the third round.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Exeter City win with a probability of 37.55%. A win for Stevenage had a probability of 35.3% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Exeter City win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.13%) and 2-0 (6.69%). The likeliest Stevenage win was 0-1 (10.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.88%).
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