SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester United win with a probability of 56.32%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for Aston Villa had a probability of 21.13%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester United win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.9%) and 2-0 (9.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.63%), while for an Aston Villa win it was 0-1 (5.71%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Manchester United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Manchester United | Draw | Aston Villa |
56.32% ( 1.13) | 22.55% ( 0.07) | 21.13% ( -1.2) |
| Both teams to score 54.92% ( -1.95) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.68% ( -1.77) | 44.32% ( 1.78) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.3% ( -1.74) | 66.7% ( 1.75) |
| Manchester United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.45% ( -0.23) | 15.55% ( 0.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.51% ( -0.44) | 44.49% ( 0.44) |
| Aston Villa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.03% ( -2.12) | 34.96% ( 2.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.29% ( -2.29) | 71.71% ( 2.3) |
| Score Analysis |
| Manchester United | Draw | Aston Villa |
| 1-0 @ 10.11% ( 0.67) 2-1 @ 9.9% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 9.42% ( 0.56)3-1 @ 6.14% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 5.84% ( 0.3)3-2 @ 3.23% ( -0.21)4-1 @ 2.86% ( -0.04)4-0 @ 2.72% ( 0.12)4-2 @ 1.5% ( -0.11)5-1 @ 1.06% ( -0.02)5-0 @ 1.01% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.53% Total : 56.31% | 1-1 @ 10.63% ( 0.13) 0-0 @ 5.44% ( 0.41)2-2 @ 5.2% ( -0.29)3-3 @ 1.13% ( -0.14)Other @ 0.15% Total : 22.55% | 0-1 @ 5.71% ( 0.11) 1-2 @ 5.59% ( -0.26)0-2 @ 3% ( -0.12)1-3 @ 1.96% ( -0.21)2-3 @ 1.82% ( -0.22)0-3 @ 1.05% ( -0.11)Other @ 2% Total : 21.13% |
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