Peterborough's array of attacking talent will undoubtedly cause Oxford problems in Wednesday's second leg, but with the U's unbeaten in four away matches, we think that they will hold Posh to a draw to secure their place at Wembley.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Peterborough United win with a probability of 48.02%. A win for Oxford United had a probability of 29.05% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Peterborough United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.56%) and 2-0 (6.85%). The likeliest Oxford United win was 1-2 (7.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.32%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
-4.97) 
1.27) 
