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EFL Cup | Third Round
Sep 26, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Vale Park
SU

Port Vale
2 - 1
Sutton

Thomas (49'), Ojo (83')
Chislett (90+5')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Kasimu (70')
Angol (6'), Kizzi (32'), Goodliffe (56'), O'Brien (80')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Cambridge 1-1 Port Vale
Saturday, September 23 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Sutton 1-1 MK Dons
Saturday, September 23 at 3pm in League Two

We said: Port Vale 2-1 Sutton United

Although Sutton have knocked out two teams in League One to book their place in third round, we think that they will be unable to repeat that feat on Tuesday. We believe that the Valiants will prove too strong for a Sutton side who have failed to win any of their last five competitive games. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Port Vale win with a probability of 53.98%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for Sutton United had a probability of 21.84%.

The most likely scoreline for a Port Vale win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.92%) and 2-1 (9.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.49%), while for a Sutton United win it was 0-1 (6.83%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Port Vale in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Port Vale.

Result
Port ValeDrawSutton United
53.98% (0.269 0.27) 24.17% (-0.096 -0.1) 21.84% (-0.183 -0.18)
Both teams to score 50.75% (0.050999999999995 0.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.65% (0.183 0.18)50.35% (-0.192 -0.19)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.71% (0.164 0.16)72.29% (-0.172 -0.17)
Port Vale Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.43% (0.17100000000001 0.17)18.57% (-0.18 -0.18)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.17% (0.292 0.29)49.83% (-0.301 -0.3)
Sutton United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
62.32% (-0.075000000000003 -0.08)37.68% (0.066000000000003 0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
25.54% (-0.073 -0.07)74.45% (0.063000000000002 0.06)
Score Analysis
    Port Vale 53.98%
    Sutton United 21.84%
    Draw 24.17%
Port ValeDrawSutton United
1-0 @ 11.77% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)
2-0 @ 9.92% (0.036 0.04)
2-1 @ 9.68% (0.016999999999999 0.02)
3-0 @ 5.57% (0.051 0.05)
3-1 @ 5.43% (0.04 0.04)
3-2 @ 2.65% (0.015 0.02)
4-0 @ 2.34% (0.035 0.04)
4-1 @ 2.29% (0.03 0.03)
4-2 @ 1.12% (0.012 0.01)
Other @ 3.21%
Total : 53.98%
1-1 @ 11.49% (-0.049999999999999 -0.05)
0-0 @ 7% (-0.054 -0.05)
2-2 @ 4.72% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
Other @ 0.96%
Total : 24.17%
0-1 @ 6.83% (-0.066 -0.07)
1-2 @ 5.61% (-0.033 -0.03)
0-2 @ 3.33% (-0.039 -0.04)
1-3 @ 1.83% (-0.014 -0.01)
2-3 @ 1.54% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
0-3 @ 1.08% (-0.015 -0.01)
Other @ 1.62%
Total : 21.84%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Cambridge 1-1 Port Vale
Saturday, September 23 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Port Vale 2-3 Burton Albion
Tuesday, September 19 at 7.45pm in League One
Last Game: Port Vale 1-0 Northampton
Saturday, September 16 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Port Vale 1-0 Crewe
Tuesday, September 5 at 7.45pm in EFL Trophy
Last Game: Oxford Utd 1-2 Port Vale
Saturday, September 2 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Port Vale 0-0 Crewe (2-0 pen.)
Tuesday, August 29 at 7.45pm in EFL Cup
Last Game: Sutton 1-1 MK Dons
Saturday, September 23 at 3pm in League Two
Last Game: Sutton 2-2 Aston Villa U21s (4-6 pen.)
Tuesday, September 19 at 7.45pm in EFL Trophy
Last Game: Accrington 4-1 Sutton
Saturday, September 16 at 3pm in League Two
Last Game: Swindon 5-3 Sutton
Saturday, September 9 at 3pm in League Two
Last Game: Sutton 0-1 Forest Green
Saturday, September 2 at 3pm in League Two
Last Game: Wycombe 0-1 Sutton
Tuesday, August 29 at 7.45pm in EFL Cup


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