Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AFC Wimbledon win with a probability of 42.57%. A win for Crawley Town had a probability of 31.63% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an AFC Wimbledon win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.89%) and 2-0 (7.33%). The likeliest Crawley Town win was 0-1 (8.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.26%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AFC Wimbledon would win this match.
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