SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bolton Wanderers win with a probability of 69.75%. A draw had a probability of 17.4% and a win for Manchester United Under-21s had a probability of 12.89%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bolton Wanderers win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.6%) and 1-0 (8.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.01%), while for a Manchester United Under-21s win it was 1-2 (3.74%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bolton Wanderers would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Bolton Wanderers | Draw | Manchester United Under-21s |
69.75% ( -0.26) | 17.35% ( 0.09) | 12.89% ( 0.17) |
| Both teams to score 55.12% ( 0.22) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.62% ( 0.02) | 35.38% ( -0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.59% ( 0.02) | 57.41% ( -0.02) |
| Bolton Wanderers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.88% ( -0.06) | 9.11% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 69.06% ( -0.13) | 30.94% ( 0.13) |
| Manchester United Under-21s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.65% ( 0.28) | 39.35% ( -0.28) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.94% ( 0.26) | 76.05% ( -0.26) |
| Score Analysis |
| Bolton Wanderers | Draw | Manchester United Under-21s |
| 2-0 @ 10.28% ( -0.07) 2-1 @ 9.6% ( 0.01)1-0 @ 8.59% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 8.22% ( -0.07)3-1 @ 7.66% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 4.92% ( -0.05)4-1 @ 4.59% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 3.57% ( 0.02)5-0 @ 2.36% ( -0.03)5-1 @ 2.2% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 2.14% ( 0.01)5-2 @ 1.03% ( 0)6-0 @ 0.94% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.66% Total : 69.75% | 1-1 @ 8.01% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 4.48% ( 0.04)0-0 @ 3.59% ( -0)3-3 @ 1.11% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.17% Total : 17.35% | 1-2 @ 3.74% ( 0.04) 0-1 @ 3.34% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 1.56% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.39% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 1.16% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.7% Total : 12.89% |
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