Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 37.86%. A win for Bristol Rovers had a probability of 37.51% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.85%) and 2-0 (5.76%). The likeliest Bristol Rovers win was 1-2 (8.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.46%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood.
-0.03) 
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