SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Notts County win with a probability of 44.76%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 32.47% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Notts County win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.61%) and 2-0 (5.94%). The likeliest Newport County win was 1-2 (7.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.95%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Notts County would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Notts County | Draw | Newport County |
44.76% ( 0.54) | 22.76% ( 0.14) | 32.47% ( -0.68) |
| Both teams to score 64.92% ( -0.83) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.12% ( -0.97) | 35.87% ( 0.97) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.04% ( -1.08) | 57.96% ( 1.08) |
| Notts County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.43% ( -0.17) | 16.56% ( 0.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.65% ( -0.32) | 46.34% ( 0.32) |
| Newport County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.8% ( -0.83) | 22.19% ( 0.83) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.39% ( -1.26) | 55.6% ( 1.27) |
| Score Analysis |
| Notts County | Draw | Newport County |
| 2-1 @ 8.94% ( 0.11) 1-0 @ 6.61% ( 0.28)2-0 @ 5.94% ( 0.22)3-1 @ 5.36% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 4.04% ( -0.08)3-0 @ 3.56% ( 0.11)4-1 @ 2.41% 4-2 @ 1.81% ( -0.05)4-0 @ 1.6% ( 0.04)4-3 @ 0.91% ( -0.05)Other @ 3.57% Total : 44.76% | 1-1 @ 9.95% ( 0.18) 2-2 @ 6.73% ( -0.09)0-0 @ 3.68% ( 0.18)3-3 @ 2.03% ( -0.09)Other @ 0.38% Total : 22.77% | 1-2 @ 7.49% ( -0.05) 0-1 @ 5.53% ( 0.13)0-2 @ 4.17% ( -0)1-3 @ 3.76% ( -0.12)2-3 @ 3.38% ( -0.13)0-3 @ 2.09% ( -0.06)1-4 @ 1.41% ( -0.08)2-4 @ 1.27% ( -0.08)Other @ 3.38% Total : 32.47% |
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