SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 56.33%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Cheltenham Town had a probability of 20.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.86%) and 0-2 (9.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.9%), while for a Cheltenham Town win it was 1-0 (6.03%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newport County would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Cheltenham Town | Draw | Newport County |
20.7% ( 2.74) | 22.97% ( 1.19) | 56.33% ( -3.93) |
| Both teams to score 52.9% ( 0.83) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.3% ( -1.22) | 46.7% ( 1.22) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.03% ( -1.15) | 68.97% ( 1.16) |
| Cheltenham Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.26% ( 2.25) | 36.74% ( -2.25) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.47% ( 2.19) | 73.53% ( -2.18) |
| Newport County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.62% ( -1.72) | 16.38% ( 1.72) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.99% ( -3.21) | 46.01% ( 3.21) |
| Score Analysis |
| Cheltenham Town | Draw | Newport County |
| 1-0 @ 6.03% ( 0.64) 2-1 @ 5.46% ( 0.59)2-0 @ 3.02% ( 0.48)3-1 @ 1.82% ( 0.29)3-2 @ 1.65% ( 0.18)3-0 @ 1.01% ( 0.21)Other @ 1.72% Total : 20.7% | 1-1 @ 10.9% ( 0.57) 0-0 @ 6.02% ( 0.3)2-2 @ 4.94% ( 0.26)3-3 @ 0.99% ( 0.06)Other @ 0.12% Total : 22.97% | 0-1 @ 10.88% ( -0.09) 1-2 @ 9.86% ( -0.06)0-2 @ 9.85% ( -0.68)1-3 @ 5.95% ( -0.41)0-3 @ 5.94% ( -0.8)2-3 @ 2.98% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 2.69% ( -0.36)0-4 @ 2.69% ( -0.55)2-4 @ 1.35% ( -0.09)1-5 @ 0.97% ( -0.2)0-5 @ 0.97% ( -0.27)Other @ 2.2% Total : 56.32% |
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