Cambuur will still be wounded following the 9-0 thrashing that Ajax dished out in the reverse fixture, and though we do not expect the defending champions to accumulate such a total on Friday, we think that Ten Haag's side will cruise to three points as they look to put the pressure on PSV. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 73.53%. A draw had a probability of 15.3% and a win for Cambuur had a probability of 11.13%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 0-2 with a probability of 9.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.1%) and 0-3 (8.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.84%), while for a Cambuur win it was 2-1 (3.27%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.

Result
Cambuur	Draw	Ajax
11.13%	15.33%	73.53%

Both teams to score 57.26%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

69.99%

30.01%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

48.79%

51.2%

Cambuur Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.57%

38.43%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.82%

75.18%

Ajax Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

93%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

74.38%

25.62%

Score Analysis

Cambuur 11.13%

Ajax 73.53%

Draw 15.33%

Cambuur	Draw	Ajax
2-1 @ 3.27% 1-0 @ 2.57% 3-2 @ 1.39% 2-0 @ 1.23% 3-1 @ 1.04% Other @ 1.63% Total : 11.13%	1-1 @ 6.84% 2-2 @ 4.35% 0-0 @ 2.69% 3-3 @ 1.23% Other @ 0.22% Total : 15.33%	0-2 @ 9.51% 1-2 @ 9.1% 0-3 @ 8.44% 1-3 @ 8.07% 0-1 @ 7.16% 0-4 @ 5.61% 1-4 @ 5.36% 2-3 @ 3.86% 0-5 @ 2.98% 1-5 @ 2.85% 2-4 @ 2.57% 2-5 @ 1.36% 0-6 @ 1.32% 1-6 @ 1.27% Other @ 4.08% Total : 73.53%