Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 89.48%. A draw had a probability of 7.1% and a win for Heerenveen had a probability of 3.39%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 3-0 with a probability of 10.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 4-0 (9.57%) and 2-0 (8.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (3.14%), while for a Heerenveen win it was 1-2 (1.11%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.