Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 89.48%. A draw had a probability of 7.1% and a win for Heerenveen had a probability of 3.39%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 3-0 with a probability of 10.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 4-0 (9.57%) and 2-0 (8.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (3.14%), while for a Heerenveen win it was 1-2 (1.11%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.

Result
Ajax	Draw	Heerenveen
89.48% ( -2.59)	7.13% ( 1.61)	3.39% ( 0.99)

Both teams to score 49.55% (

1.78)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

81.82% (

-3.08)

18.18% (

3.08)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

64.51% (

-4.67)

35.5% (

4.67)

Ajax Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

97.59% (

-0.67)

2.42% (

0.68)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

88.57% (

-2.62)

11.43% (

2.63)

Heerenveen Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

50.78% (

2.16)

49.22% (

-2.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

15.89% (

1.49)

84.11% (

-1.48)

Score Analysis

Ajax 89.47%

Heerenveen 3.39%

Draw 7.13%

Ajax	Draw	Heerenveen
3-0 @ 10.27% ( 0.3) 4-0 @ 9.57% ( -0.55) 2-0 @ 8.27% ( 0.9) 3-1 @ 7.28% ( 0.64) 5-0 @ 7.14% ( -1.09) 4-1 @ 6.79% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 5.86% ( 0.95) 5-1 @ 5.06% ( -0.42) 1-0 @ 4.44% ( 0.81) 6-0 @ 4.43% ( -1.13) 6-1 @ 3.14% ( -0.56) 3-2 @ 2.58% ( 0.37) 4-2 @ 2.41% ( 0.16) 7-0 @ 2.36% ( -0.87) 5-2 @ 1.79% ( -0.03) 7-1 @ 1.67% ( -0.48) 6-2 @ 1.11% ( -0.12) 8-0 @ 1.1% ( -0.54) Other @ 4.21% Total : 89.47%	1-1 @ 3.14% ( 0.73) 2-2 @ 2.08% ( 0.44) 0-0 @ 1.19% ( 0.3) Other @ 0.72% Total : 7.13%	1-2 @ 1.11% ( 0.31) Other @ 2.28% Total : 3.39%