SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 50.64%. A win for NAC Breda had a probability of 27.42% and a draw had a probability of 21.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.85%) and 0-2 (6.7%). The likeliest NAC Breda win was 2-1 (6.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.56%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| NAC Breda | Draw | Ajax |
27.42% ( -2.79) | 21.94% ( 0.13) | 50.64% ( 2.66) |
| Both teams to score 64.59% ( -2.67) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 65.09% ( -2.61) | 34.91% ( 2.61) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 43.11% ( -2.97) | 56.89% ( 2.98) |
| NAC Breda Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.23% ( -3.04) | 24.77% ( 3.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.66% ( -4.44) | 59.34% ( 4.45) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.87% ( -0.07) | 14.13% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 58.21% ( -0.14) | 41.79% ( 0.14) |
| Score Analysis |
| NAC Breda | Draw | Ajax |
| 2-1 @ 6.67% ( -0.31) 1-0 @ 4.89% ( 0.22)2-0 @ 3.41% ( -0.15)3-1 @ 3.1% ( -0.45)3-2 @ 3.04% ( -0.45)3-0 @ 1.59% ( -0.23)4-1 @ 1.08% ( -0.27)4-2 @ 1.06% ( -0.27)Other @ 2.59% Total : 27.42% | 1-1 @ 9.56% ( 0.41) 2-2 @ 6.53% ( -0.32)0-0 @ 3.5% ( 0.45)3-3 @ 1.98% ( -0.3)Other @ 0.38% Total : 21.94% | 1-2 @ 9.35% ( 0.38) 0-1 @ 6.85% ( 0.86)0-2 @ 6.7% ( 0.82)1-3 @ 6.1% ( 0.23)0-3 @ 4.37% ( 0.53)2-3 @ 4.26% ( -0.22)1-4 @ 2.98% ( 0.11)0-4 @ 2.14% ( 0.25)2-4 @ 2.08% ( -0.12)1-5 @ 1.17% ( 0.04)3-4 @ 0.97% ( -0.15)Other @ 3.66% Total : 50.64% |
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