SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 60.6%. A draw had a probability of 19.9% and a win for Heerenveen had a probability of 19.45%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.3%) and 1-0 (7.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.87%), while for a Heerenveen win it was 1-2 (5.2%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ajax | Draw | Heerenveen |
60.6% ( -0.04) | 19.94% ( -0.09) | 19.45% ( 0.12) |
| Both teams to score 61.37% ( 0.55) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 65.42% ( 0.62) | 34.57% ( -0.62) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 43.48% ( 0.69) | 56.51% ( -0.69) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.88% ( 0.18) | 11.12% ( -0.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 64.45% ( 0.39) | 35.55% ( -0.39) |
| Heerenveen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.05% ( 0.48) | 30.95% ( -0.49) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.75% ( 0.56) | 67.25% ( -0.57) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ajax | Draw | Heerenveen |
| 2-1 @ 9.74% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 8.3% ( -0.14)1-0 @ 7.56% ( -0.19)3-1 @ 7.13% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 6.08% ( -0.06)3-2 @ 4.18% ( 0.07)4-1 @ 3.91% ( 0.04)4-0 @ 3.34% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 2.3% ( 0.05)5-1 @ 1.72% ( 0.03)5-0 @ 1.47% ( 0.01)5-2 @ 1.01% ( 0.03)Other @ 3.88% Total : 60.6% | 1-1 @ 8.87% ( -0.1) 2-2 @ 5.71% ( 0.05)0-0 @ 3.44% ( -0.11)3-3 @ 1.63% ( 0.05)Other @ 0.29% Total : 19.94% | 1-2 @ 5.2% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 4.04% ( -0.08)0-2 @ 2.37% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.23% ( 0.05)1-3 @ 2.03% ( 0.03)0-3 @ 0.93% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.66% Total : 19.45% |
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