Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 60.6%. A draw had a probability of 19.9% and a win for Heerenveen had a probability of 19.45%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.3%) and 1-0 (7.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.87%), while for a Heerenveen win it was 1-2 (5.2%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
Result | ||
Ajax | Draw | Heerenveen |
60.6% (![]() | 19.94% (![]() | 19.45% (![]() |
Both teams to score 61.37% (![]() |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
65.42% (![]() | 34.57% (![]() |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
43.48% (![]() | 56.51% (![]() |
Ajax Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
88.88% (![]() | 11.12% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
64.45% (![]() | 35.55% (![]() |
Heerenveen Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
69.05% (![]() | 30.95% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
32.75% (![]() | 67.25% (![]() |
Score Analysis |
Ajax | Draw | Heerenveen |
2-1 @ 9.74% (![]() 2-0 @ 8.3% ( ![]() 1-0 @ 7.56% ( ![]() 3-1 @ 7.13% ( ![]() 3-0 @ 6.08% ( ![]() 3-2 @ 4.18% ( ![]() 4-1 @ 3.91% ( ![]() 4-0 @ 3.34% ( ![]() 4-2 @ 2.3% ( ![]() 5-1 @ 1.72% ( ![]() 5-0 @ 1.47% ( ![]() 5-2 @ 1.01% ( ![]() Other @ 3.88% Total : 60.6% | 1-1 @ 8.87% (![]() 2-2 @ 5.71% ( ![]() 0-0 @ 3.44% ( ![]() 3-3 @ 1.63% ( ![]() Other @ 0.29% Total : 19.94% | 1-2 @ 5.2% (![]() 0-1 @ 4.04% ( ![]() 0-2 @ 2.37% ( ![]() 2-3 @ 2.23% ( ![]() 1-3 @ 2.03% ( ![]() 0-3 @ 0.93% ( ![]() Other @ 2.66% Total : 19.45% |
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