SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NEC win with a probability of 41.17%. A win for Groningen had a probability of 35.25% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a NEC win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.05%) and 2-0 (5.79%). The likeliest Groningen win was 1-2 (7.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.61%). The actual scoreline of 6-0 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that NEC would win this match.
| Result | ||
| NEC | Draw | Groningen |
41.17% ( -0.63) | 23.58% ( 0.57) | 35.25% ( 0.06) |
| Both teams to score 62.78% ( -2.15) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.94% ( -2.81) | 39.06% ( 2.81) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.62% ( -3.01) | 61.38% ( 3.02) |
| NEC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.67% ( -1.44) | 19.33% ( 1.44) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 48.9% ( -2.42) | 51.1% ( 2.42) |
| Groningen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.82% ( -1.26) | 22.18% ( 1.26) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.42% ( -1.93) | 55.58% ( 1.93) |
| Score Analysis |
| NEC | Draw | Groningen |
| 2-1 @ 8.72% ( 0.05) 1-0 @ 7.05% ( 0.61)2-0 @ 5.79% ( 0.25)3-1 @ 4.78% ( -0.2)3-2 @ 3.6% ( -0.29)3-0 @ 3.17% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.96% ( -0.18)4-2 @ 1.48% ( -0.2)4-0 @ 1.3% ( -0.06)Other @ 3.32% Total : 41.17% | 1-1 @ 10.61% ( 0.54) 2-2 @ 6.57% ( -0.22)0-0 @ 4.29% ( 0.54)3-3 @ 1.81% ( -0.22)Other @ 0.31% Total : 23.58% | 1-2 @ 7.99% ( 0.11) 0-1 @ 6.46% ( 0.6)0-2 @ 4.86% ( 0.28)1-3 @ 4.01% ( -0.1)2-3 @ 3.3% ( -0.24)0-3 @ 2.44% ( 0.05)1-4 @ 1.51% ( -0.1)2-4 @ 1.24% ( -0.14)0-4 @ 0.92% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.53% Total : 35.25% |
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