Both teams have not quite hit the heights of last season, and three points in this weekend's encounter could be the catalyst for a change in fortune going forward. While we expect Heerenveen to put up a decent fight, we are backing NEC to narrowly edge out their visitors en route to all three points at the end of the 90 minutes. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NEC win with a probability of 45.13%. A win for Heerenveen had a probability of 31.29% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a NEC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.77%) and 2-0 (6.62%). The likeliest Heerenveen win was 1-2 (7.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.75%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that NEC would win this match.

Result
NEC	Draw	Heerenveen
45.13%	23.58% ( -0)	31.29% ( 0.01)

Both teams to score 61.32% (

0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

59.64% (

0.02)

40.36% (

-0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

37.26% (

0.02)

62.74% (

-0.01)

NEC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.81% (

0.01)

18.19% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.81% (

0.01)

49.19% (

-0)

Heerenveen Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.95% (

0.02)

25.05% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.28% (

0.02)

59.73% (

-0.01)

Score Analysis

NEC 45.13%

Heerenveen 31.29%

Draw 23.58%

NEC	Draw	Heerenveen
2-1 @ 9.16% 1-0 @ 7.77% ( -0) 2-0 @ 6.62% ( -0) 3-1 @ 5.2% 3-0 @ 3.76% ( -0) 3-2 @ 3.6% ( 0) 4-1 @ 2.22% 4-0 @ 1.6% 4-2 @ 1.54% ( 0) Other @ 3.67% Total : 45.13%	1-1 @ 10.75% 2-2 @ 6.34% ( 0) 0-0 @ 4.56% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.66% ( 0) Other @ 0.27% Total : 23.58%	1-2 @ 7.44% ( 0) 0-1 @ 6.31% ( -0) 0-2 @ 4.37% 1-3 @ 3.43% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.93% ( 0) 0-3 @ 2.02% ( 0) 1-4 @ 1.19% ( 0) 2-4 @ 1.01% ( 0) Other @ 2.6% Total : 31.29%