SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heerenveen win with a probability of 57.31%. A draw had a probability of 21.7% and a win for NAC Breda had a probability of 20.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heerenveen win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.15%) and 2-0 (8.98%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.09%), while for a NAC Breda win it was 1-2 (5.57%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Heerenveen would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Heerenveen | Draw | NAC Breda |
57.31% ( 0.06) | 21.73% ( -0.02) | 20.95% ( -0.05) |
| Both teams to score 57.42% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.12% ( 0.01) | 40.88% ( -0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.73% ( 0.01) | 63.26% ( -0.01) |
| Heerenveen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.93% ( 0.02) | 14.06% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 58.35% ( 0.04) | 41.65% ( -0.04) |
| NAC Breda Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.81% ( -0.04) | 33.18% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.21% ( -0.05) | 69.78% ( 0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Heerenveen | Draw | NAC Breda |
| 2-1 @ 9.9% ( 0) 1-0 @ 9.15% ( 0)2-0 @ 8.98% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 6.48% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 5.87% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 3.57% 4-1 @ 3.18% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 2.88% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.75% ( 0)5-1 @ 1.25% ( 0)5-0 @ 1.13% ( 0)Other @ 3.17% Total : 57.31% | 1-1 @ 10.09% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.46% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 4.67% ( -0)3-3 @ 1.31% ( -0)Other @ 0.19% Total : 21.73% | 1-2 @ 5.57% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 5.15% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 2.84% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 2.05% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.01% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.04% ( -0)Other @ 2.29% Total : 20.95% |
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