SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 79.22%. A draw had a probability of 12.7% and a win for Vitesse had a probability of 8.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.39%) and 2-1 (8.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.67%), while for a Vitesse win it was 1-2 (2.46%). The actual scoreline of 6-0 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.
| Result | ||
| PSV Eindhoven | Draw | Vitesse |
79.22% ( -0.42) | 12.71% ( 0.24) | 8.06% ( 0.18) |
| Both teams to score 55.01% ( -0.17) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 73.25% ( -0.59) | 26.75% ( 0.59) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 52.83% ( -0.76) | 47.17% ( 0.76) |
| PSV Eindhoven Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 94.71% ( -0.19) | 5.29% ( 0.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 79.16% ( -0.55) | 20.84% ( 0.55) |
| Vitesse Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.08% ( -0.06) | 41.92% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.63% ( -0.06) | 78.37% ( 0.06) |
| Score Analysis |
| PSV Eindhoven | Draw | Vitesse |
| 2-0 @ 9.58% ( 0.12) 3-0 @ 9.39% ( 0.01)2-1 @ 8.33% ( 0.09)3-1 @ 8.16% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 6.9% ( -0.08)1-0 @ 6.52% ( 0.16)4-1 @ 6% ( -0.08)5-0 @ 4.06% ( -0.09)3-2 @ 3.55% ( -0.01)5-1 @ 3.53% ( -0.09)4-2 @ 2.61% ( -0.04)6-0 @ 1.99% ( -0.07)6-1 @ 1.73% ( -0.07)5-2 @ 1.53% ( -0.04)Other @ 5.37% Total : 79.22% | 1-1 @ 5.67% ( 0.13) 2-2 @ 3.62% ( 0.03)0-0 @ 2.22% ( 0.08)3-3 @ 1.03% ( -0)Other @ 0.18% Total : 12.71% | 1-2 @ 2.46% ( 0.05) 0-1 @ 1.93% ( 0.07)2-3 @ 1.05% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.62% Total : 8.06% |
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