SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 46.97%. A win for Vitesse had a probability of 28.63% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.37%) and 0-2 (7.66%). The likeliest Vitesse win was 2-1 (7.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Vitesse | Draw | PSV Eindhoven |
28.63% ( -0.02) | 24.39% ( 0.22) | 46.97% ( -0.21) |
| Both teams to score 56.84% ( -0.78) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.45% ( -1.02) | 45.54% ( 1.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.13% ( -0.98) | 67.87% ( 0.98) |
| Vitesse Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.6% ( -0.53) | 29.4% ( 0.53) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.61% ( -0.66) | 65.39% ( 0.66) |
| PSV Eindhoven Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.51% ( -0.49) | 19.49% ( 0.49) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 48.63% ( -0.81) | 51.37% ( 0.81) |
| Score Analysis |
| Vitesse | Draw | PSV Eindhoven |
| 2-1 @ 7.02% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 7.02% ( 0.2)2-0 @ 4.29% ( 0.06)3-1 @ 2.87% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 2.34% ( -0.08)3-0 @ 1.75% ( -0)Other @ 3.34% Total : 28.63% | 1-1 @ 11.47% ( 0.16) 2-2 @ 5.74% ( -0.1)0-0 @ 5.73% ( 0.25)3-3 @ 1.28% ( -0.06)Other @ 0.17% Total : 24.39% | 1-2 @ 9.38% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 9.37% ( 0.26)0-2 @ 7.66% ( 0.1)1-3 @ 5.11% ( -0.09)0-3 @ 4.18% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 3.13% ( -0.1)1-4 @ 2.09% ( -0.07)0-4 @ 1.71% ( -0.03)2-4 @ 1.28% ( -0.06)Other @ 3.07% Total : 46.98% |
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