SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 57.79%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for Sparta Rotterdam had a probability of 20.15%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.93%) and 0-2 (9.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.38%), while for a Sparta Rotterdam win it was 1-0 (5.43%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sparta Rotterdam | Draw | PSV Eindhoven |
20.15% ( 0.35) | 22.06% ( 0.35) | 57.79% ( -0.69) |
| Both teams to score 55.03% ( -0.59) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.55% ( -1.07) | 43.45% ( 1.07) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.16% ( -1.06) | 65.84% ( 1.06) |
| Sparta Rotterdam Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.56% ( -0.26) | 35.44% ( 0.27) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.8% ( -0.27) | 72.2% ( 0.28) |
| PSV Eindhoven Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.23% ( -0.57) | 14.77% ( 0.58) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 56.98% ( -1.11) | 43.02% ( 1.12) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sparta Rotterdam | Draw | PSV Eindhoven |
| 1-0 @ 5.43% ( 0.21) 2-1 @ 5.39% ( 0.07)2-0 @ 2.82% ( 0.09)3-1 @ 1.86% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.78% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 0.97% ( 0.03)Other @ 1.9% Total : 20.15% | 1-1 @ 10.38% ( 0.2) 0-0 @ 5.23% ( 0.24)2-2 @ 5.15% ( -0.04)3-3 @ 1.14% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.15% Total : 22.06% | 0-1 @ 10.01% ( 0.26) 1-2 @ 9.93% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 9.57% ( 0.06)1-3 @ 6.33% ( -0.14)0-3 @ 6.1% ( -0.09)2-3 @ 3.28% ( -0.1)1-4 @ 3.03% ( -0.13)0-4 @ 2.92% ( -0.11)2-4 @ 1.57% ( -0.08)1-5 @ 1.16% ( -0.08)0-5 @ 1.12% ( -0.06)Other @ 2.77% Total : 57.78% |
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