SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 60.44%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Sparta Rotterdam had a probability of 18.12%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.23%) and 2-1 (9.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.13%), while for a Sparta Rotterdam win it was 0-1 (5.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
| Result | ||
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Sparta Rotterdam |
60.44% ( -0.84) | 21.44% ( 0.01) | 18.12% ( 0.84) |
| Both teams to score 53.46% ( 1.61) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.23% ( 1.33) | 43.77% ( -1.33) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.84% ( 1.29) | 66.16% ( -1.28) |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.96% ( 0.17) | 14.04% ( -0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 58.39% ( 0.33) | 41.61% ( -0.33) |
| Sparta Rotterdam Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.19% ( 1.76) | 37.81% ( -1.75) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.42% ( 1.67) | 74.58% ( -1.67) |
| Score Analysis |
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Sparta Rotterdam |
| 1-0 @ 10.42% ( -0.54) 2-0 @ 10.23% ( -0.47)2-1 @ 9.95% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 6.69% ( -0.27)3-1 @ 6.51% ( 0.06)4-0 @ 3.29% ( -0.11)4-1 @ 3.2% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 3.17% ( 0.17)4-2 @ 1.55% ( 0.09)5-0 @ 1.29% ( -0.03)5-1 @ 1.26% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.88% Total : 60.44% | 1-1 @ 10.13% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 5.31% ( -0.31)2-2 @ 4.84% ( 0.24)3-3 @ 1.03% ( 0.1)Other @ 0.13% Total : 21.44% | 0-1 @ 5.16% ( -0.05) 1-2 @ 4.93% ( 0.21)0-2 @ 2.51% ( 0.09)1-3 @ 1.6% ( 0.14)2-3 @ 1.57% ( 0.15)Other @ 2.35% Total : 18.12% |
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