SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 46.25%. A win for Lech Poznan had a probability of 30.98% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.92%) and 0-2 (6.28%). The likeliest Lech Poznan win was 2-1 (7.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.04%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Lech Poznan | Draw | Villarreal |
30.98% ( -0.11) | 22.77% ( 0.04) | 46.25% ( 0.07) |
| Both teams to score 64.11% ( -0.21) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.38% ( -0.25) | 36.62% ( 0.24) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.22% ( -0.27) | 58.78% ( 0.27) |
| Lech Poznan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.59% ( -0.19) | 23.41% ( 0.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.59% ( -0.27) | 57.4% ( 0.27) |
| Villarreal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.71% ( -0.07) | 16.29% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.14% ( -0.13) | 45.85% ( 0.12) |
| Score Analysis |
| Lech Poznan | Draw | Villarreal |
| 2-1 @ 7.3% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 5.54% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 4.02% ( 0)3-1 @ 3.53% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 3.2% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 1.95% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.28% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.16% ( -0.02)Other @ 3% Total : 30.98% | 1-1 @ 10.04% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 6.62% ( -0.02)0-0 @ 3.81% ( 0.05)3-3 @ 1.94% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.36% Total : 22.76% | 1-2 @ 9.12% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 6.92% ( 0.07)0-2 @ 6.28% ( 0.05)1-3 @ 5.51% ( -0)2-3 @ 4% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 3.8% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 2.5% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.82% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 1.72% ( 0.01)1-5 @ 0.91% ( -0)Other @ 3.67% Total : 46.25% |
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