Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derry City win with a probability of 36.71%. A win for Tobol had a probability of 34.79% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derry City win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.71%) and 0-2 (6.87%). The likeliest Tobol win was 1-0 (11.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood.
