Europa League | Group Stage
Oct 13, 2022 at 5.45pm UK
AEK Arena
Form, Standings, Stats
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We said: AEK Larnaca 1-2 Fenerbahce
Although Fenerbahce are winless in their last three away games, their overall form remains impressive, and we think that they will edge out Larnaca on Thursday to claim a third consecutive victory.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fenerbahce win with a probability of 51%. A draw had a probability of 26.3% and a win for AEK Larnaca had a probability of 22.72%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fenerbahce win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.19%) and 1-2 (9.14%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.29%), while for an AEK Larnaca win it was 1-0 (8.27%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Fenerbahce in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Fenerbahce.
| Result |
| AEK Larnaca | Draw | Fenerbahce |
22.72% ( 0.04) | 26.27% ( 0.01) | 51% ( -0.05) |
| Both teams to score 45.84% ( 0.02) |
| 42.62% ( 0.01) | 57.38% ( -0.01) |
| 21.8% ( 0) | 78.2% ( -0) |
| 59.22% ( 0.04) | 40.78% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 22.64% ( 0.04) | 77.36% ( -0.04) |
| 77.4% ( -0.02) | 22.6% ( 0.02) |
