Lazio are unbeaten in their last six Europa League home matches, and should keep that run going against bottom seeds Sturm Graz.
Sturm Graz have proved they can compete in this group though, despite being battered by Feyenoord, and may pose Lazio a few problems throughout the night.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 47.75%. A draw had a probability of 26.6% and a win for Sturm Graz had a probability of 25.62%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.24%) and 2-1 (9.03%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.54%), while for a Sturm Graz win it was 0-1 (8.72%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood.
0.06) 
-0.1) 
