Grimsby gave a good account of themselves at Kenilworth Road, and we expect the Mariners to produce another competitive performance on Tuesday, but we think that Luton's Championship quality will shine through in the end.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luton Town win with a probability of 45.48%. A draw had a probability of 27.4% and a win for Grimsby Town had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Luton Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.88%) and 1-2 (8.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.83%), while for a Grimsby Town win it was 1-0 (9.44%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood.
1.51) 
-2.3) 
