Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 49.76%. A win for Grimsby Town had a probability of 25.67% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.54%) and 2-0 (8.64%). The likeliest Grimsby Town win was 0-1 (7.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.66%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Swindon Town would win this match.
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