Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Northampton Town win with a probability of 40.11%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 32.76% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Northampton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.42%) and 2-0 (7.29%). The likeliest Newport County win was 0-1 (9.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.86%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood.
0.01) 
-0.02) 
