Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 52.01%. A draw had a probability of 25.8% and a win for Rochdale had a probability of 22.21%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.28%) and 2-1 (9.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.12%), while for a Rochdale win it was 0-1 (7.92%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood.
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