Both teams have been largely inconsistent this season, but Peterborough have shown their quality in recent times and are favourites to edge this one, given how they tend to rise to the occasion in knockout competitions.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Peterborough United win with a probability of 49.94%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 27.21% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Peterborough United win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8%) and 0-2 (7.33%). The likeliest Newport County win was 2-1 (6.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.39%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Peterborough United would win this match.
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