Port Vale have won or drawn four of the last five matches they have played away from home, while Oxford have lost four of the last five fixtures they have hosted at the Kassam Stadium.
The Valiants have also scored in each of their last eight games in all competitions, so we think they will have enough to edge this contest.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Oxford United win with a probability of 48.22%. A win for Port Vale had a probability of 26.82% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Oxford United win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.42%) and 2-0 (8.42%). The likeliest Port Vale win was 0-1 (7.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.86%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Oxford United would win this match.
-0.13) 
0.02) 
