SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City win with a probability of 37.8%. A win for Stevenage had a probability of 35.16% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.18%) and 2-0 (6.71%). The likeliest Stevenage win was 0-1 (10.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.84%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Stoke City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Stoke City | Draw | Stevenage |
37.8% ( -0.25) | 27.05% ( 0.24) | 35.16% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 50.71% ( -0.76) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.39% ( -0.96) | 54.6% ( 0.96) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.05% ( -0.8) | 75.94% ( 0.8) |
| Stoke City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.01% ( -0.6) | 27.99% ( 0.6) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.37% ( -0.77) | 63.63% ( 0.77) |
| Stevenage Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.42% ( -0.46) | 29.58% ( 0.47) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.39% ( -0.57) | 65.61% ( 0.57) |
| Score Analysis |
| Stoke City | Draw | Stevenage |
| 1-0 @ 10.54% ( 0.22) 2-1 @ 8.18% ( -0.07)2-0 @ 6.71% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 3.47% ( -0.09)3-0 @ 2.85% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 2.11% ( -0.08)4-1 @ 1.11% ( -0.05)4-0 @ 0.91% ( -0.03)Other @ 1.92% Total : 37.79% | 1-1 @ 12.84% ( 0.1) 0-0 @ 8.28% ( 0.3)2-2 @ 4.98% ( -0.11)Other @ 0.95% Total : 27.05% | 0-1 @ 10.08% ( 0.24) 1-2 @ 7.82% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 6.14% ( 0.07)1-3 @ 3.18% ( -0.06)0-3 @ 2.49% ( -0)2-3 @ 2.02% ( -0.07)1-4 @ 0.97% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.45% Total : 35.15% |
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