Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stevenage win with a probability of 45.61%. A win for Harrogate Town had a probability of 28.76% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stevenage win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.16%) and 0-2 (8.04%). The likeliest Harrogate Town win was 1-0 (8.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.18%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood.
0.33) 
-0.48) 
