Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AEK Athens win with a probability of 41.24%. A win for Aris Thessaloniki had a probability of 31.27% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an AEK Athens win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.45%) and 0-2 (7.7%). The likeliest Aris Thessaloniki win was 1-0 (9.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.97%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AEK Athens would win this match.
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