Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ionikos win with a probability of 53.63%. A draw had a probability of 26.2% and a win for Apollon Smyrni had a probability of 20.21%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ionikos win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.18%) and 2-1 (9.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.05%), while for an Apollon Smyrni win it was 0-1 (8.02%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ionikos would win this match.
