SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Central African Republic win with a probability of 76.52%. A draw had a probability of 15.3% and a win for Papua New Guinea had a probability of 8.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Central African Republic win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.88%) and 3-0 (10.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.27%), while for a Papua New Guinea win it was 0-1 (2.97%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Central African Republic would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Central African Republic | Draw | Papua New Guinea |
76.52% ( 0.06) | 15.28% ( -0.06) | 8.2% ( 0) |
| Both teams to score 44.48% ( 0.27) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.13% ( 0.33) | 39.87% ( -0.33) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.77% ( 0.35) | 62.23% ( -0.34) |
| Central African Republic Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.31% ( 0.1) | 8.68% ( -0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 70.09% ( 0.23) | 29.91% ( -0.23) |
| Papua New Guinea Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 48.71% ( 0.24) | 51.29% ( -0.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 14.47% ( 0.16) | 85.53% ( -0.16) |
| Score Analysis |
| Central African Republic | Draw | Papua New Guinea |
| 2-0 @ 13.29% ( -0.09) 1-0 @ 10.88% ( -0.12)3-0 @ 10.83% ( -0.02)2-1 @ 8.88% ( 0)3-1 @ 7.23% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 6.62% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 4.42% ( 0.04)5-0 @ 3.23% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.42% ( 0.03)5-1 @ 2.16% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 1.48% ( 0.02)6-0 @ 1.32% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.75% Total : 76.5% | 1-1 @ 7.27% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 4.45% ( -0.07)2-2 @ 2.97% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.6% Total : 15.28% | 0-1 @ 2.97% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 2.43% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 0.99% ( -0)Other @ 1.81% Total : 8.2% |
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