SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hong Kong win with a probability of 53.36%. A draw had a probability of 24.3% and a win for Philippines had a probability of 22.33%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hong Kong win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.77%) and 2-1 (9.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.56%), while for a Philippines win it was 0-1 (6.92%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hong Kong would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Hong Kong | Draw | Philippines |
53.36% ( 0.2) | 24.31% ( 0.02) | 22.33% ( -0.22) |
| Both teams to score 50.98% ( -0.35) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.64% ( -0.32) | 50.36% ( 0.32) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.7% ( -0.28) | 72.3% ( 0.29) |
| Hong Kong Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.18% ( -0.04) | 18.81% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 49.76% ( -0.07) | 50.24% ( 0.07) |
| Philippines Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.79% ( -0.39) | 37.2% ( 0.4) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 26.01% ( -0.39) | 73.99% ( 0.39) |
| Score Analysis |
| Hong Kong | Draw | Philippines |
| 1-0 @ 11.69% ( 0.14) 2-0 @ 9.77% ( 0.1)2-1 @ 9.66% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 5.44% ( 0.05)3-1 @ 5.38% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.66% ( -0.03)4-0 @ 2.27% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 2.25% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.11% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.13% Total : 53.35% | 1-1 @ 11.56% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 7% ( 0.09)2-2 @ 4.78% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.97% Total : 24.31% | 0-1 @ 6.92% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 5.72% ( -0.06)0-2 @ 3.42% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 1.88% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 1.57% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 1.13% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.69% Total : 22.33% |
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