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Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage
Sep 9, 2023 at 2pm UK
Stade Rene Gaillard
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Malawi
2 - 2
Guinea

Saizi (23'), Chaziya (88')
Banda (63')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Camara (56'), Sow (58')
Diawara (68')

Form, Standings, Stats

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Malawi 0-0 South Africa (3-5 pen.)
Sunday, July 16 at 2pm in COSAFA Cup
All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Brazil 4-1 Guinea
Saturday, June 17 at 8.30pm in International Friendlies

We said: Malawi 0-1 Guinea

While Malawi and Guinea have nothing at stake here, we anticipate an action-packed affair at the Bingu National Stadium nonetheless. Given the gulf in quality and experience between the two sides, we see Guinea coming out on top in this one. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malawi win with a probability of 48.61%. A draw had a probability of 27% and a win for Guinea had a probability of 24.38%.

The most likely scoreline for a Malawi win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.72%) and 2-1 (8.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.59%), while for a Guinea win it was 0-1 (8.88%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood.

Result
MalawiDrawGuinea
48.61% (-0.156 -0.16) 27% (0.044 0.04) 24.38% (0.111 0.11)
Both teams to score 45.53% (-0.021999999999998 -0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
41.35% (-0.079999999999998 -0.08)58.65% (0.079000000000001 0.08)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
20.8% (-0.061999999999998 -0.06)79.2% (0.061999999999998 0.06)
Malawi Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.77% (-0.10799999999999 -0.11)24.23% (0.108 0.11)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.43% (-0.153 -0.15)58.58% (0.15300000000001 0.15)
Guinea Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
60.09% (0.057000000000002 0.06)39.92% (-0.057000000000002 -0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
23.43% (0.053999999999998 0.05)76.58% (-0.054000000000002 -0.05)
Score Analysis
    Malawi 48.61%
    Guinea 24.38%
    Draw 27%
MalawiDrawGuinea
1-0 @ 13.71%
2-0 @ 9.72% (-0.031000000000001 -0.03)
2-1 @ 8.93% (-0.014999999999999 -0.01)
3-0 @ 4.59% (-0.03 -0.03)
3-1 @ 4.22% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02)
3-2 @ 1.94% (-0.006 -0.01)
4-0 @ 1.63% (-0.015 -0.02)
4-1 @ 1.5% (-0.012 -0.01)
Other @ 2.39%
Total : 48.61%
1-1 @ 12.59% (0.02 0.02)
0-0 @ 9.67% (0.029 0.03)
2-2 @ 4.1% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
Other @ 0.64%
Total : 27%
0-1 @ 8.88% (0.041 0.04)
1-2 @ 5.78% (0.017 0.02)
0-2 @ 4.08% (0.024 0.02)
1-3 @ 1.77% (0.008 0.01)
2-3 @ 1.26% (0.002 0)
0-3 @ 1.25% (0.01 0.01)
Other @ 1.37%
Total : 24.38%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Malawi 0-0 South Africa (3-5 pen.)
Sunday, July 16 at 2pm in COSAFA Cup
Last Game: Malawi 1-1 Lesotho (0-3 pen.)
Friday, July 14 at 2pm in COSAFA Cup
Last Game: Malawi 2-0 Comoros
Tuesday, July 11 at 2pm in COSAFA Cup
Last Game: Malawi 2-0 Seychelles
Sunday, July 9 at 5pm in COSAFA Cup
Last Game: Zambia 0-1 Malawi
Thursday, July 6 at 5pm in COSAFA Cup
Last Game: Ethiopia 0-0 Malawi
Tuesday, June 20 at 3pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Brazil 4-1 Guinea
Saturday, June 17 at 8.30pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Guinea 1-2 Egypt
Wednesday, June 14 at 7pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Ethiopia 2-3 Guinea
Monday, March 27 at 8pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Guinea 2-0 Ethiopia
Friday, March 24 at 8.30pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Ivory Coast 3-1 Guinea
Tuesday, September 27 at 7pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Algeria 1-0 Guinea
Friday, September 23 at 8pm in International Friendlies


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