SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Uruguay win with a probability of 60.58%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for Panama had a probability of 16.83%.
The most likely scoreline for a Uruguay win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.65%) and 2-1 (9.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.71%), while for a Panama win it was 0-1 (5.91%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Uruguay would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Uruguay | Draw | Panama |
60.58% ( 0.04) | 22.6% ( 0) | 16.83% ( -0.04) |
| Both teams to score 47.33% ( -0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.32% ( -0.08) | 50.67% ( 0.07) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.42% ( -0.07) | 72.58% ( 0.07) |
| Uruguay Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.69% ( -0.02) | 16.31% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 54.11% ( -0.03) | 45.89% ( 0.03) |
| Panama Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.55% ( -0.09) | 43.45% ( 0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 20.33% ( -0.08) | 79.67% ( 0.08) |
| Score Analysis |
| Uruguay | Draw | Panama |
| 1-0 @ 12.85% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 11.65% ( 0.03)2-1 @ 9.71% ( -0)3-0 @ 7.04% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 5.87% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 3.19% ( 0)4-1 @ 2.66% ( -0)3-2 @ 2.45% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 1.16% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.11% ( -0.01)5-1 @ 0.97% ( -0)Other @ 1.92% Total : 60.57% | 1-1 @ 10.71% 0-0 @ 7.09% ( 0.02)2-2 @ 4.05% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.75% Total : 22.59% | 0-1 @ 5.91% ( 0) 1-2 @ 4.47% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 2.46% ( -0)1-3 @ 1.24% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.13% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.62% Total : 16.83% |
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