SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heerenveen win with a probability of 45.63%. A win for NAC Breda had a probability of 29.9% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heerenveen win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.1%) and 0-2 (7.34%). The likeliest NAC Breda win was 2-1 (7.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Heerenveen in this match.
| Result | ||
| NAC Breda | Draw | Heerenveen |
29.9% ( -0.15) | 24.46% ( -0) | 45.63% ( 0.15) |
| Both teams to score 57.42% ( -0.07) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.85% ( -0.05) | 45.14% ( 0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.51% ( -0.05) | 67.49% ( 0.05) |
| NAC Breda Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.68% ( -0.13) | 28.31% ( 0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.96% ( -0.16) | 64.04% ( 0.16) |
| Heerenveen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.1% ( 0.04) | 19.9% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.97% ( 0.07) | 52.02% ( -0.08) |
| Score Analysis |
| NAC Breda | Draw | Heerenveen |
| 2-1 @ 7.24% ( -0.03) 1-0 @ 7.11% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 4.49% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 3.05% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 2.46% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 1.89% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 0.96% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.72% Total : 29.9% | 1-1 @ 11.47% 2-2 @ 5.85% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 5.63% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.32% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.18% Total : 24.46% | 1-2 @ 9.27% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 9.1% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 7.34% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 4.99% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 3.95% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 3.15% ( -0)1-4 @ 2.01% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 1.6% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 1.27% ( 0)Other @ 2.96% Total : 45.63% |
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