Atletico's recent form has been extremely impressive, and we are fully expecting them to put another victory on the board this weekend. Alaves beat the capital giants earlier this season, but we are finding it very difficult to back the visitors to pick up a positive result at Wanda Metropolitano. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 76.07%. A draw had a probability of 16% and a win for Alaves had a probability of 7.89%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.69%) and 3-0 (11.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.54%), while for an Alaves win it was 0-1 (3.27%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.

Result
Atletico Madrid	Draw	Alaves
76.07%	16.05%	7.89%

Both teams to score 40.32%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

55.4%

44.6%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.03%

66.97%

Atletico Madrid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

90.03%

9.97%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

67.05%

32.95%

Alaves Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

44.78%

55.22%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

11.99%

88.01%

Score Analysis

Atletico Madrid 76.05%

Alaves 7.89%

Draw 16.05%

Atletico Madrid	Draw	Alaves
2-0 @ 14.63% 1-0 @ 12.69% 3-0 @ 11.24% 2-1 @ 8.69% 3-1 @ 6.68% 4-0 @ 6.49% 4-1 @ 3.85% 5-0 @ 2.99% 3-2 @ 1.98% 5-1 @ 1.78% 6-0 @ 1.15% 4-2 @ 1.14% Other @ 2.74% Total : 76.05%	1-1 @ 7.54% 0-0 @ 5.5% 2-2 @ 2.58% Other @ 0.43% Total : 16.05%	0-1 @ 3.27% 1-2 @ 2.24% 0-2 @ 0.97% Other @ 1.41% Total : 7.89%