Rayo have shared the points in three of their last four La Liga matches, and we are backing another draw in this game. Alaves were close to claiming a point against Osasuna last time out, and we believe that the home team will have enough to avoid defeat on Saturday afternoon.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 40.95%. A win for Alaves had a probability of 30.66% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.18%) and 0-2 (7.93%). The likeliest Alaves win was 1-0 (10.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.19%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood.
