Rayo have shared the points in three of their last four La Liga matches, and we are backing another draw in this game. Alaves were close to claiming a point against Osasuna last time out, and we believe that the home team will have enough to avoid defeat on Saturday afternoon. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 40.95%. A win for Alaves had a probability of 30.66% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.18%) and 0-2 (7.93%). The likeliest Alaves win was 1-0 (10.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.19%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood.

Result
Alaves	Draw	Rayo Vallecano
30.66%	28.39%	40.95%

Both teams to score 45.7%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

39.6%

60.4%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

19.46%

80.54%

Alaves Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.34%

35.66%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.57%

72.43%

Rayo Vallecano Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.03%

28.97%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.14%

64.86%

Score Analysis

Alaves 30.65%

Rayo Vallecano 40.94%

Draw 28.38%

Alaves	Draw	Rayo Vallecano
1-0 @ 10.65% 2-1 @ 6.81% 2-0 @ 5.49% 3-1 @ 2.34% 3-0 @ 1.89% 3-2 @ 1.45% Other @ 2.03% Total : 30.65%	1-1 @ 13.19% 0-0 @ 10.33% 2-2 @ 4.22% Other @ 0.65% Total : 28.38%	0-1 @ 12.79% 1-2 @ 8.18% 0-2 @ 7.93% 1-3 @ 3.38% 0-3 @ 3.27% 2-3 @ 1.74% 1-4 @ 1.05% 0-4 @ 1.01% Other @ 1.6% Total : 40.94%