Celta have been excellent at home this season, but they have lost their two on their travels. Athletic have only actually won one of their three fixtures at San Mames this term, but we are expecting the Basque outfit to collect all three points this weekend.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 53.07%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Celta Vigo had a probability of 22.89%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.71%) and 2-0 (9.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.42%), while for a Celta Vigo win it was 0-1 (6.72%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Athletic Bilbao would win this match.
0.28) 
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