SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 58.02%. A draw had a probability of 21.2% and a win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 20.78%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.66%) and 1-0 (8.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.7%), while for an Athletic Bilbao win it was 1-2 (5.53%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Barcelona in this match.
| Result | ||
| Barcelona | Draw | Athletic Bilbao |
58.02% ( 0.1) | 21.19% ( -0) | 20.78% ( -0.1) |
| Both teams to score 59.08% ( -0.16) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.43% ( -0.13) | 38.57% ( 0.13) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.13% ( -0.14) | 60.86% ( 0.14) |
| Barcelona Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.91% ( -0.02) | 13.09% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 60.3% ( -0.03) | 39.7% ( 0.03) |
| Athletic Bilbao Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.98% ( -0.17) | 32.02% ( 0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.52% ( -0.2) | 68.48% ( 0.2) |
| Score Analysis |
| Barcelona | Draw | Athletic Bilbao |
| 2-1 @ 9.87% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 8.66% ( 0.05)1-0 @ 8.52% ( 0.05)3-1 @ 6.69% ( 0)3-0 @ 5.87% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 3.81% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 3.4% ( -0)4-0 @ 2.99% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.94% ( -0.01)5-1 @ 1.38% ( -0)5-0 @ 1.21% ( 0)Other @ 3.68% Total : 58.02% | 1-1 @ 9.7% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.62% ( -0.02)0-0 @ 4.19% ( 0.03)3-3 @ 1.45% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.23% Total : 21.19% | 1-2 @ 5.53% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 4.77% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 2.72% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.13% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 2.1% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 1.03% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.51% Total : 20.78% |
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