Espanyol will certainly have been boosted by their point against Atletico, but Rayo have made a solid start to the campaign, and we are finding it tough to back them to lose here. We fancy Espanyol to score their first league goal of the campaign, but the hosts might have to settle for a share of the spoils.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Espanyol win with a probability of 45.46%. A draw had a probability of 29% and a win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 25.54%.
The most likely scoreline for a Espanyol win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.47%) and 2-1 (8.19%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.02%), while for a Rayo Vallecano win it was 0-1 (10.35%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Espanyol would win this match.
0.27) 
-0.12) 
