Girona's home form this season has been strong, winning eight of their 15 matches, but Real Madrid have the second-best away record in the division, claiming 31 points from 15 games. It would not be a surprise to see a draw here, but we just have a feeling that the reigning champions will navigate their way to all three points.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 59.52%. A draw had a probability of 21.7% and a win for Girona had a probability of 18.76%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.06%) and 1-2 (9.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.26%), while for a Girona win it was 1-0 (5.3%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood.
-0.08) 
0.03) 
