Alaves found it difficult against Barcelona last time out, but their recent form has been strong, and Villarreal are not exactly having a brilliant season. We are expecting this contest to be very tight and are struggling to separate them, which has led to us backing a low-scoring draw on Saturday afternoon.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alaves win with a probability of 40.9%. A win for Villarreal had a probability of 33.49% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alaves win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.75%) and 2-0 (6.83%). The likeliest Villarreal win was 0-1 (8.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.13%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
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