Juventus were thumped by Villarreal on their own turf. Bayern Munich failed to overcome Emery's side at the Allianz Arena. There is no reason for the travelling party to believe that another remarkable away win and joyous plane ride home is not on the cards.
However, Gerard Moreno's goalscoring and playmaking qualities will be a huge miss for Villarreal at Anfield, and while we eventually expect Liverpool to break the Yellow Submarine's resistance and earn a first-leg advantage, they will surely have to be even more patient than they were against Everton.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Liverpool win with a probability of 63.41%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for Villarreal had a probability of 13.14%.
The most likely scoreline for a Liverpool win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.27%) and 2-1 (8.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.37%), while for a Villarreal win it was 0-1 (6.17%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 14.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Liverpool would win this match.
