SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 3 | Derry City | 19 | 15 | 33 |
| 4 | St Patrick's Athletic | 19 | 8 | 28 |
| 5 | Sligo Rovers | 19 | 2 | 25 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | Drogheda United | 18 | -10 | 20 |
| 9 | Finn Harps | 18 | -16 | 11 |
| 10 | University College Dublin | 18 | -27 | 9 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Patrick's Athletic win with a probability of 70.14%. A draw had a probability of 19.1% and a win for University College Dublin had a probability of 10.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Patrick's Athletic win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (13.47%) and 3-0 (9.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.95%), while for a University College Dublin win it was 0-1 (4.33%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that St Patrick's Athletic would win this match.
| Result | ||
| St Patrick's Athletic | Draw | University College Dublin |
70.14% ( 0.33) | 19.05% ( -0.1) | 10.81% ( -0.22) |
| Both teams to score 42.39% ( -0.41) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.37% ( -0.14) | 48.63% ( 0.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.26% ( -0.12) | 70.74% ( 0.13) |
| St Patrick's Athletic Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.33% ( 0.05) | 12.67% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 61.15% ( 0.11) | 38.85% ( -0.11) |
| University College Dublin Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 48.54% ( -0.5) | 51.46% ( 0.5) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 14.35% ( -0.33) | 85.65% ( 0.34) |
| Score Analysis |
| St Patrick's Athletic | Draw | University College Dublin |
| 2-0 @ 13.91% ( 0.13) 1-0 @ 13.47% ( 0.11)3-0 @ 9.58% ( 0.11)2-1 @ 9.24% ( -0.05)3-1 @ 6.37% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 4.95% ( 0.07)4-1 @ 3.29% ( -0)3-2 @ 2.11% ( -0.04)5-0 @ 2.04% ( 0.03)5-1 @ 1.36% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.09% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.72% Total : 70.13% | 1-1 @ 8.95% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 6.52% ( 0.04)2-2 @ 3.07% ( -0.06)Other @ 0.51% Total : 19.05% | 0-1 @ 4.33% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 2.97% ( -0.07)0-2 @ 1.44% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.07% Total : 10.81% |
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